Robert Kaplan argues that the United States should militaraly force aid on Myanmar.
The magic of this is that an enormous amount of assistance can be provided while maintaining a small footprint on shore, greatly reducing the chances of a clash with the Burmese armed forces while nevertheless dealing a hard political blow to the junta.
Ok, let’s take a step back here. We are talking about a regime that is so xenophobic that it doesn't want to allow humanitarian workers on its soil. Why would they put up with foreign troops carving out any sized beachhead? Even if you dismiss the military capabilities of the Myanmar Junta, this still implies making a potentially long term commitment of American military resources. Aren’t we already a bit overstretched as it is?
Mr. Kaplan then goes on to argue that just the threat of American military intervention would motivate India, China and Thailand to put pressure on Myanmar on their own. That seems unlikely to me. China is preoccupied with the Olympics, Tibet, and, oh yeah, the MASSIVE EARTHQUAKE they just had. The Indian government is having trouble getting the US-Indian Nuclear cooperation treaty ratified and cannot appear to be kowtowing to America on other issues. And for some reason I just cannot see Thailand doing anything to piss off their neighbors. I don’t see their incentive.
Kaplan spends the remainder of the column worrying about the aftermath of the intervention, when the Junta will inevitably fall. He seems to treat whether or not to intervine as if it were a very difficult issue. It is not. This is a gimme.
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