Georgia, Russia and NATO

By now, anyone has been following the recent events in Georgia knows the box score of the current hostilities, but Ill recap just in case.

In 1991, Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union. Though it flirted briefly with democracy, a semi-fascist oligarchy headed by Eduard Shevardnadze was quickly set up and ran the country until 2003. During this time, Russia began to build up the separatist aspirations of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two provinces on the Russo-Georgian border. They even went as far as to issue Russian passports in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both regions have held de facto autonomy since 1992 due to the threat of Russian military action.

The situation changed after the “Rose Revolution” of 2003. With both Russian and American support, Mikheil Saakashvili forced Shevardnadze to abdicate and was elected President a month later. The election of a legitimate, democratic government in Georgia coincided with increased American interest in the region. Georgia wanted a powerful backer to help it reclaim territories lost to Russian influence, whereas the threat of nuclear proliferation and a desire for allies in Central Asia to help combat “Global Terrorism” were the principle drives behind American support for the Caucasus state.

The current war was touched off when Georgia invaded the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, killing Russian “peacekeepers” in the process. Technically, the Georgians were in the right here. South Ossetia is recognized by the UN as part of Georgia, and so they were technically just maneuvering on their own territory. The truth is that they have no more right to South Ossetia than Russia has to Georgia. On the other hand, if every group in the Caucuses with a Glorious Past and a grudge actually had independence, the map would look like you dumped out a bag of Skittles on it. Regardless, Russia responded by sending couple tank columns down into Georgia.

Of course, the Russians had motives beyond protecting the “poor oppressed Ossetians”. Russia has been bitter ever since NATO declared Kosovo independent from Russia’s historic little buddy Serbia. Vlad Putin has been peeved because of discussions about Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO. Putin wants to use this war to promote an undeclared Russian Monroe Doctrine. The West, and especially the United States, stays the hell out of the Former Soviet Union. Or, to quote Vladimir Putin, “Georgia’s OUR bitch.”*

Russia cannot be allowed to dictate who the US and NATO works with. The idea that American overtures to former Soviet states were part of a plan to encircle Russia was pure paranoia. Fear of Russia may be what drives Eastern Europe into America’s arms, but beyond the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal, America has little interest in messing with Putin’s Russia. We have quite enough enemies, thank you very much. The Russia just wasn’t really on NATO’s radar.

That is, until now. I think that Putin and President Medvedev may have miscalculated with this war. Georgia and Ukraine were very close to getting NATO membership earlier this year, and would have if not for opposition from Germany. The strongest case against Georgia and Ukraine entering NATO is that it would be unnecessarily provocative to bring in a country with an active border dispute with Russia. The Russian offensive may succeed in clearing up this issue. Meanwhile, Russian artillery and the inevitable civilian casualties it causes are upsetting Europeans use to more civilian-friendly American precision bombing. Europe has been stuck in the idea that full-out war only happens to silly little brown people and cowboy Americans. What a change a week makes.

The situation in Georgia is completely up in the air and I can’t speculate on its result, but I will say that this war will most likely lead to Ukraine’s ascension into NATO and the EU. This war may make Georgians look like unreliable allies, but Ukraine is unscathed. Had Georgia made it into NATO, I doubt that Russia would have risked this war. As it is, the Georgian war may just lead to Russia feeling more encircled than it did last week.

*I have no evidence that Mr. Putin ever said this.

The United States and Turkey

For the past couple of years, Turkey has been struggling with something of a crisis of identity. Turkey, long at the crossroads between the West and Asia, has spent almost ten years negotiating for membership in the European Union. While it remains strictly secular by law, in practice Turkey is a devoutly Muslim nation and is far more pious than many in the European club it wishes to join. This dichotomy between Turkey’s secular construction and Islamic content may be the cause of many of its headaches domestically and internationally. It is also the strongest basis for making sure Turkey continues to grow closer to the west.

Criticism of Turkish ascension to the EU typically takes three distinct forms. The first concern that many in Europe have is Turkey’s economic strength. This complaint is patently unfair. Turkey’s GDP per capita is above that of Romania, which ascended to the EU in 2006. More open trade with Europe would certainly accelerate Turkey’s growth, as would the strong increase in foreign investment associated with EU ascension.

A second concern about Turkey joining the EU, famously voiced by Pope Benedict XVI, is the idea that Europe is, by definition, Christian. I am sure that the 10 million French, British, and German Muslims would be delighted to hear that. The Pope later recanted, but widespread xenophobia remains throughout the EU. Europeans hate genocide and ethnic cleansing, but love their results. Regardless, the complaint is bullshit. Nations of the Anatolia peninsula have been part of European politics longer than the Church has. No one denied that Istanbul was part of Europe back when it was called Constantinople.

The most legitimate concern about Turkey has been the strength of its democracy. Turkey has been a Democracy in the South-East Asian sense of the word, in that sovereignty with the people, so long as the people don’t do anything to upset the military. What really pisses off the military is anything that would go against the legacy of Kemal Ataturk. This includes anything that would deny the inherent Turkishness of Turkey, and any hint of religion in politics.

So the electoral success of the mildly Islamist AK party, and of its leader Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has upset the secularists in the military greatly. Their fears are unjustified. AK’s most anti-secular action, the repeal of a ban on headscarves in Universities, is hardly a first step on the road to a Caliphate. Saudi Arabia had a similar ban on headscarves in Universities, in that they disapproved both of women learning and cross dressers. The most likely effect of the ban on headscarves in Turkey was that women in poorer and more religious areas were less likely to attend school.

Regardless, the Chief Prosecutor had asked the Constitutional courts to ban AK. This was no mean threat: the constitutional court has banned more than twenty political parties since its inception. Last week, the court decided not to do so. This event, along with the recent negotiations in Cyprus, demonstrates the strength of Turkey’s democracy and its determination to join Europe. But Turkey needs help overcoming European fears. This is where the United States comes in. America should start going to bat for Turkey in a visible way regarding its EU ascension.

Turkey is one of America’s most important allies in a number of ways. They are a regional power in the Middle East on the level of Iran in terms of size and strength. Even if Turkey does not make it into the EU, they are likely to negotiate some sort of free trade agreement that will accelerate their growth similar to how NAFTA has sped up Mexico’s. That will leave it as an increasingly powerful power with a strong economy and a growing population. They have long standing ties to the United States through NATO, and maintain friendly relations with Israel as well as its neighbors. They did not back us in Iraq, but who can blame them? All we did was create a mess on its southeastern border, and stir up trouble with its large (20%) Kurdish minority.

On top of this, they are tough. Global Fire Power.com ranks their military as 8th in the world, ahead of Great Britain’s, for whatever that’s worth. In a time when most of our “allies” in the region kowtow to our face and stab at our back (think Pakistan and the Saudis), Turkey is upfront with its displeasure with the US. So much so that it has been willing to go into Iraq to bang on the PKK (anti-Turkish Kurdish militias), even though the Kurds are America’s only reliable ally in the country.

Here is the problem. The United States is very unpopular among most people in Turkey. The Iraq war and the perceived anti-Muslim trend in American foreign policy are certainly aspects of this widespread resentment. However, foreign policy is a “what have you done for me lately” business. We have been asking a lot of favors from the Turks recently and have not done much in return.

US support for Turkey’s EU bid would be perfect for this. It would be visible and easy to understand. We would piss off the Germans and others in Europe, but who cares? Europeans will get over it. If Turkey perceives that it is continually being rejected by the West, it might not.