The Sistani Fatwa

There are rumors that Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the most influential cleric in Iraq is considering a fatwa directed against the United States. Some have said that Sistani has already issued an edict authorizing attacks on coalition forces in Iraq. Given his history of supporting law and order in Iraq, this seems unlikely. What seems more likely is that he will announce, in some form, that it is time for America to leave. The results of such a fatwa would be tremendous, to say the least. It could completely reverse the recent spate of positive developments, and could make America's current position untenable.

Juan Cole offered some interesting possibilities as to why al-Sistani would do such a thing on his blog,such as to stop a potential assault on Iran using Iraq as a base of operations, to regain influence amongst poor Shiites, or because he genuinely believes that Prime Minister Maliki can control the country without foreign assistance. Between the above reasons, the first and second are most likely. Sistani recently has come out in support of Muqtada Sadr’s demand that any treaty for permanent US bases be subject to a referendum, and is vehemently opposed to any such deal.

If Sistani begins openly opposing Coalition forces in Iraq, America could find its options severely limited. Sistani will not meet with any American official, thus ruling out a negotiated settlement. He could claim the allegiance of Iraq's 17 million Shiites, and the Iraqi government would be hard-pressed to oppose him. Worse, such an edict may cause the "Awakened" Sunni's to give up on being reconciled into the government. Opposition by Sistani would stymie any American efforts to maintain order in all but the Kurdish north. Unless America is prepared to reconquer Iraq and begin using more extreme counterinsurgency tactics like British-style concentration camps, there would be only one remaining option. America would have to leave Iraq.

Of course, this in it self may not be such a disastrous outcome. One can easily imagine the following scenario; Sistani declares that American forces must leave Iraq, and likely Maliki stays mum on the subject. At that point, why can't the US declare victory and go home? Hold a press conference saying that the Iraqi government has proved that it can handle itself, and declare that the US will begin moving divisions out of Iraq by the end of the year.

Sistani's hypothetical fatwa would turn Iraqi opinion decisively against the US occupation. In such a case, President Bush should heed the popular will. Even at the risk of further violence erupting, it is not worth America formally becoming an occupying power. It has been said that democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. I wonder if Sistani really knows what he wants.