Georgia, Russia and NATO

By now, anyone has been following the recent events in Georgia knows the box score of the current hostilities, but Ill recap just in case.

In 1991, Georgia declared independence from the Soviet Union. Though it flirted briefly with democracy, a semi-fascist oligarchy headed by Eduard Shevardnadze was quickly set up and ran the country until 2003. During this time, Russia began to build up the separatist aspirations of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two provinces on the Russo-Georgian border. They even went as far as to issue Russian passports in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both regions have held de facto autonomy since 1992 due to the threat of Russian military action.

The situation changed after the “Rose Revolution” of 2003. With both Russian and American support, Mikheil Saakashvili forced Shevardnadze to abdicate and was elected President a month later. The election of a legitimate, democratic government in Georgia coincided with increased American interest in the region. Georgia wanted a powerful backer to help it reclaim territories lost to Russian influence, whereas the threat of nuclear proliferation and a desire for allies in Central Asia to help combat “Global Terrorism” were the principle drives behind American support for the Caucasus state.

The current war was touched off when Georgia invaded the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, killing Russian “peacekeepers” in the process. Technically, the Georgians were in the right here. South Ossetia is recognized by the UN as part of Georgia, and so they were technically just maneuvering on their own territory. The truth is that they have no more right to South Ossetia than Russia has to Georgia. On the other hand, if every group in the Caucuses with a Glorious Past and a grudge actually had independence, the map would look like you dumped out a bag of Skittles on it. Regardless, Russia responded by sending couple tank columns down into Georgia.

Of course, the Russians had motives beyond protecting the “poor oppressed Ossetians”. Russia has been bitter ever since NATO declared Kosovo independent from Russia’s historic little buddy Serbia. Vlad Putin has been peeved because of discussions about Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO. Putin wants to use this war to promote an undeclared Russian Monroe Doctrine. The West, and especially the United States, stays the hell out of the Former Soviet Union. Or, to quote Vladimir Putin, “Georgia’s OUR bitch.”*

Russia cannot be allowed to dictate who the US and NATO works with. The idea that American overtures to former Soviet states were part of a plan to encircle Russia was pure paranoia. Fear of Russia may be what drives Eastern Europe into America’s arms, but beyond the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal, America has little interest in messing with Putin’s Russia. We have quite enough enemies, thank you very much. The Russia just wasn’t really on NATO’s radar.

That is, until now. I think that Putin and President Medvedev may have miscalculated with this war. Georgia and Ukraine were very close to getting NATO membership earlier this year, and would have if not for opposition from Germany. The strongest case against Georgia and Ukraine entering NATO is that it would be unnecessarily provocative to bring in a country with an active border dispute with Russia. The Russian offensive may succeed in clearing up this issue. Meanwhile, Russian artillery and the inevitable civilian casualties it causes are upsetting Europeans use to more civilian-friendly American precision bombing. Europe has been stuck in the idea that full-out war only happens to silly little brown people and cowboy Americans. What a change a week makes.

The situation in Georgia is completely up in the air and I can’t speculate on its result, but I will say that this war will most likely lead to Ukraine’s ascension into NATO and the EU. This war may make Georgians look like unreliable allies, but Ukraine is unscathed. Had Georgia made it into NATO, I doubt that Russia would have risked this war. As it is, the Georgian war may just lead to Russia feeling more encircled than it did last week.

*I have no evidence that Mr. Putin ever said this.